Share markets have seen a bit of volatility and a pullback over the past month. This has been particularly so for Australian shares. This note looks at the key drivers and whether it’s just a correction or a new bear market. Download pdf Drivers of recent volatility Our view for this year has been that […]
Introduction As the mining investment boom deflates, in order for Australia to rebalance its economy, a pick-up in demand for homes and house prices in response to lower interest rates, sending a signal to home builders to build more homes was essential. Fortunately, it’s occurred. The RBA (belatedly in my view) got rates down, home […]
Introduction The impending end of the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) program and when it will start to raise interest rates are looming large for investors. Very easy global monetary conditions, led by the Fed, have been a constant for the last six years helping the global recovery since the GFC. But with the […]
The slowdown in June quarter GDP growth to just 0.5% quarter on quarter, or just 2% on a US style annualised basis, against the backdrop of weak commodity prices, the end of the mining investment boom and rising unemployment may add to consternation regarding the Australian economic outlook. And yet the local share market has […]
As we approach mid-year it’s worth reviewing the outlook for shares particularly with numerous warnings of corrections and crashes. Our view for this year has been that share market gains would be positive, but more constrained than seen in the last two years, and that volatility would increase – including the likelihood of a 10-15% […]
The last few weeks have seen a range of factors causing volatility in investment markets including concerns that the Fed might start to raise interest rates earlier than expected, worries about the lack of strength in Europe, Russian trade sanctions and the conflicts in Ukraine, Iraq and the Middle East. In the background have also […]
Up until the 1950s most share investors were long term investors who bought stocks for their dividend income. This changed in the 1960s as bond yields rose on the back of inflation and investors started to shift focus to capital growth. However, thanks to the volatility seen over the last decade or so, and an […]
Most investment analysis and commentary is focused on the here and now and the implications for investment markets just a little bit ahead. But getting a handle on the return potential for major asset classes over the medium term, ie the next five years or so, is of value from several perspectives. First, such return […]
I reckon the first wonder of the investment world is the power of compound interest. My good friend Dr Don Stammer even goes so far to refer to it as the “magic” of compound interest because it almost is magical. Compound interest can be the worst nightmare of a borrower as interest gets charged on […]
It’s now over 18 months since Japan embarked on a program designed to reinvigorate its economy under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which has become known as “Abenomics”. Growth has rebounded, deflation has given way to inflation and Japanese shares are up around 70%. But is Abenomics working or are we just seeing another cyclical bounce? […]