As we approach mid-year it’s worth reviewing the outlook for shares particularly with numerous warnings of corrections and crashes. Our view for this year has been that share market gains would be positive, but more constrained than seen in the last two years, and that volatility would increase – including the likelihood of a 10-15% […]
A big surprise this year has been the renewed rally in government bonds – both globally and in Australia. Since December 31 last year, 10 year bond yields have fallen from 3.03% to currently 2.65% in the US, from 4.24% to 3.74% in Australia and from 1.93% to 1.4% in Germany. The big question for […]
Since the high point of the Eurozone crisis in 2012, Europe has been steadily fading from the headlines as the risk of a break up in the Euro diminished and troubled peripheral countries started to get their public finances under control. Quite clearly the combination of various bailouts, Eurozone leaders focusing on “more Europe, not […]
During the past few years Australia has had a tough time in achieving economic reform. The first attempt in a decade at serious tax reform got bogged down with debate around the poorly designed Resource Super Profit Tax in 2010 leading to the less than optimal mining tax, the attempt to put a price on […]
The overwhelming victory by the reform oriented BJP led alliance in India’s recent election, has boosted hopes that the Indian economy will get India’s growth story back on track. In the clearest election outcome since 1984, the BJP led alliance won 336 of 543 parliamentary seats giving it a clear majority, with the BJP alone […]
With the Government winning the election with a mandate to fix the budget, a bout of fiscal austerity was inevitable. Against this backdrop and the fears of the last few weeks, the Budget is not as tough as feared. Many of the budget savings will only build over time. Download pdf Watch video commentary Key […]
A constant for investors over the last five years has been very easy global monetary conditions, with near zero interest rates and quantitative easing programs in the US, Europe and Japan. This has helped the global economic and share market recoveries since the GFC. But with the US economy on the mend the time will […]
Investing can be scary and confusing at times. But the basic principles of successful investing are timeless and quotes from some experts help illuminate these. This note looks at those I find most insightful. Download pdf Aim “How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts?” Robert […]
The past few weeks has seen several predictions of a share market crash by some perennial high profile bears. The broad claim is that share markets – namely US shares – have disconnected from fundamentals and that the Fed is to blame for a poor recovery and/or doesn’t know what it is doing. And of […]
Two years ago some (mainly foreign) commentators were convinced Australian housing was in a bubble that was in the process of collapsing as the China driven mining boom faded. Instead, lower interest rates have led to the usual response of rising house prices & approvals for new homes. But has it gone too far, taking […]